Анализ сценариев и влияние: планирование сценариев, экономические шоки и оценка воздействия на глобальные агропродовольственные рынки

Built from the manuscript’s stated scope, title, chapter map, and introduction, the book sits at the meeting point of agri-food economics, scenario planning, macro shocks, and impact assessment in global food systems. KDP states categories and relevant keywords help readers find books, and it also notes a specific keyword is required for Kindle textbook placement. Scenario Analysis and Impact Assessment in Global Agri-Food Markets offers a rigorous yet practical study of how food systems react under pressure, how economic shocks move across markets, and how firms, analysts, and public decision-makers should assess real impact with discipline. Food markets do not move like ordinary markets. Price shifts in grains, dairy, oils, meat, fertilisers, freight, and exchange rates move straight into household budgets, business margins, trade balances, and public policy. A disruption in food supply is never only a sector issue. It affects inflation, affordability, employment, sourcing, logistics, and political stability. This book studies those links with economic precision. The text begins with the foundations of scenario planning in global agri-food markets. It examines why food systems matter in wider economic structures, why uncertainty should not be confused with measurable risk, and why resilience, foresight, and preparedness matter when volatility becomes a normal feature of markets. From there, it moves into the main microeconomic drivers of change, including marginal analysis, opportunity cost, fixed and sunk costs, demand estimation, elasticity, market structure, competition, and economies of scale. A central strength of this book lies in its treatment of macroeconomic transmission. Inflation, unemployment, business cycle shifts, monetary policy, fiscal policy, exchange rates, trade exposure, and instability across borders are studied as active forces in food markets, not as distant background factors. Readers are shown how cost shocks, supply constraints, and public response alter both firm-level decisions and wider market outcomes. The book then turns to scenario construction. It explains how to identify trends, map cross-impacts, frame base-case and adverse-case paths, read weak signals, and translate market pressure into strategic action. Rather than using scenario work as a vague planning exercise, the text presents it as a disciplined method for testing assumptions, reading structural fragility, and preparing for more than one plausible future. The final section deals with impact assessment in applied settings. Association and causality are separated with care. Counterfactual reasoning, before-after limits, selection bias, and difference-in-difference logic are presented in a way suited to real market and policy questions. This part is especially useful for readers who need stronger methods for judging whether an intervention, reform, shock response, pricing move, or policy measure produced the effect claimed. This book is written for economists, policy analysts, agri-food managers, researchers, graduate students, commodity specialists, consultants, and public authorities. It is also useful for readers working in agricultural economics, food policy, trade analysis, market intelligence, supply chain strategy, and impact evaluation. Readers looking for a shallow overview will not find it here. Readers looking for a serious framework for scenario analysis, economic shocks, food inflation, trade exposure, demand response, and impact assessment in agri-food markets will find a structured and valuable guide.