ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНАЯ УБЕДИТЕЛЬНОСТЬ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ СУДЬБА НАЦИЙ: Как институциональная непрерывность формирует ожидания, инвестиции и долгосрочный рост

Why do some nations achieve sustained economic growth while others remain trapped in cycles of instability?Traditional economic theory has long focused on the role of production factors — land, labor, capital, and technology — in explaining the creation of wealth. Yet these elements alone cannot fully account for persistent differences in economic performance across countries.This book introduces a powerful and original perspective: institutional credibility . Luiz Fernando Mello Raposo argues that what ultimately shapes economic trajectories is not only the existence of institutions, but their perceived ability to ensure the continuity of rules over time . When institutions are credible, expectations stabilize, the cost of capital declines, and long-term investment becomes viable. When credibility is weak, uncertainty rises, horizons shrink, and growth becomes fragmented.To formalize this insight, the book develops the framework of the Intertemporal Economics of National Credibility (IENC) — a model that conceptualizes institutional credibility as a stock accumulated over time, influencing expectations, investment decisions, and growth trajectories.Bridging economic theory, institutional analysis, and the study of time, this work offers a new way to understand the deeper forces shaping economic development.